ML Analysis — FRANKLIN COUNTY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 131322 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.4%, 25.2%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross | 0.746 | +0.0423 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 20.000 | +0.0201 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.354 | +0.0125 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| Commercial % | 0.291 | -0.0119 | Lower Commercial % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Net-to-Gross.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.3%
Distress Risk
$2.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
6.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P56. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
ID distress rate: 46.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.746 | +0.168 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.475 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.135 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.574 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1649584.600 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.8M
Current margin: -2.3%
Projected margin: 6.1%
Grade: C
Comps: 32
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.292 | 0.476 | 18.5% | $2.8M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P43 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |