ML Analysis — SHOSHONE MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 131314 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside16/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.0%, 20.6%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 743727.120 | -0.1166 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 744873.280 | +0.1124 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.591 | +0.0249 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 183955.300 | -0.0229 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
59.2%
Distress Risk
$4.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
25.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P6. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
ID distress rate: 46.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.247 | +0.258 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.591 | +0.099 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.664 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 743727.120 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.040 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.8M
Current margin: -0.1%
Projected margin: 25.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 31
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.296 | 0.496 | 20.0% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.247 | 0.496 | 24.8% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.591 | 0.666 | 7.5% | $162K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P57 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |