ML Analysis — PEAK VIEW BEHAVIORAL HEALTH
CCN 064026 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 18.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.0%, 20.6%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 320920.938 | -0.1757 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 260170.821 | +0.1721 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.339 | -0.0303 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 267593.738 | -0.0201 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.834 | +0.0175 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
49.1%
Distress Risk
$549K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
20.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P61. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.834 | -0.287 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.339 | +0.250 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 320920.938 | +0.074 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.045 | -0.048 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.380 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 112.000 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $549K
Current margin: 18.9%
Projected margin: 20.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 34
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.616 | 0.653 | 3.7% | $549K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |