ML Analysis — SEDGWICK COUNTY HEALTH CENTER
CCN 061310 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -14.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.0%, 19.6%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 2.197 | -0.0506 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.649 | +0.0314 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.105 | +0.0278 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 9.000 | +0.0218 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1808695.333 | -0.0187 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
59.7%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
14.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P32. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CO distress rate: 46.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.236 | +0.269 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.649 | +0.125 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.786 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.053 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 9.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1574636.667 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: -14.9%
Projected margin: 14.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 13
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.161 | 0.424 | 26.3% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.236 | 0.257 | 2.1% | $139K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.649 | 0.679 | 3.0% | $51K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P79 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |