ML Analysis — JOHN MUIR MEDICAL CENTER - WC
CCN 050180 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility14/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.4%, 26.2%]. P57 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2157974.121 | +0.0808 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 506.000 | -0.0557 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2064595.798 | -0.0502 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.226 | +0.0430 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.133 | +0.0198 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$14.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
5.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.578 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.342 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.202 | -0.074 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 506.000 | +0.048 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2157974.121 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $14.2M
Current margin: 4.3%
Projected margin: 5.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 106
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.202 | 0.292 | 9.0% | $11.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.658 | 0.749 | 9.2% | $1.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.578 | 0.776 | 19.8% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |