ML Analysis — ENCINO HOSPITAL
CCN 050158 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
38
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency1/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.0%, 18.6%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 693280.195 | -0.1237 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 662194.671 | +0.1226 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.093 | +0.0311 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 146485.264 | -0.0241 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.211 | -0.0178 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.6%
Distress Risk
$8.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
20.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P49. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.211 | +0.291 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.224 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 693280.195 | +0.052 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.500 | +0.030 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 82.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.083 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.9M
Current margin: 4.5%
Projected margin: 20.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 153
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.417 | 0.727 | 31.1% | $4.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.211 | 0.715 | 50.4% | $3.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.224 | 0.369 | 14.4% | $961K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P58 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |