ML Analysis — CONWAY BEHAVIORAL HEALTH
CCN 044022 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 22.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.0%, 16.6%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 248781.325 | -0.1857 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 193035.050 | +0.1804 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.352 | -0.0318 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 191041.906 | -0.0226 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0222 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
51.0%
Distress Risk
$1.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
28.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P59. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AR distress rate: 53.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.352 | +0.263 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.768 | -0.225 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 248781.325 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.077 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 80.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.380 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.2M
Current margin: 22.4%
Projected margin: 28.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 35
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.571 | 0.640 | 7.0% | $1.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.380 | 0.428 | 4.8% | $112K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |