ML Analysis — MT. GRAHAM REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 031319 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.4%, 24.2%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3007443.960 | +0.1994 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3091021.360 | -0.1766 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.276 | -0.0227 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
54.3%
Distress Risk
$4.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
3.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P45. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.276 | +0.187 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.410 | +0.107 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3007443.960 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.430 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.199 | -0.022 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.4M
Current margin: -2.8%
Projected margin: 3.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 41
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.525 | 0.661 | 13.6% | $2.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.410 | 0.684 | 27.4% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.430 | 0.494 | 6.5% | $567K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P61 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |