ML Analysis — TUCSON MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 030006 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -2.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.6%, 25.0%]. P54 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 499.000 | -0.0547 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.213 | +0.0427 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.339 | -0.0303 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.119 | +0.0238 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 44%Turnaround possible (44%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Bed Count.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
47.2%
Distress Risk
$2.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-2.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P83. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.863 | -0.314 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.339 | +0.250 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.258 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 499.000 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.201 | -0.022 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1497734.675 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.3M
Current margin: -2.8%
Projected margin: -2.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 21
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.460 | 0.611 | 15.1% | $2.3M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |