ML Analysis — BANNER UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER PHX
CCN 030002 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.3%, 21.3%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 656.000 | -0.0791 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.486 | +0.0491 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.444 | -0.0430 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.106 | +0.0274 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Bed Count.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
51.0%
Distress Risk
$2.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-5.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P93. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.444 | +0.355 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.808 | -0.263 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 656.000 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.249 | -0.053 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.128 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1656805.637 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.3M
Current margin: -5.9%
Projected margin: -5.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 13
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.428 | 0.580 | 15.2% | $2.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.808 | 0.812 | 0.4% | $23K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |