ML Analysis — NORTHWEST MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 010086 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.6%, 14.0%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 850469.929 | -0.1017 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 953294.393 | +0.0867 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.092 | +0.0315 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.085 | -0.0292 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.332 | -0.0242 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 27%Low turnaround probability (27%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
53.0%
Distress Risk
$3.0M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
0.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P47. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AL distress rate: 58.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.347 | +0.165 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.200 | -0.075 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 850469.929 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.441 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 28.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.099 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.0M
Current margin: -12.1%
Projected margin: 0.4%
Grade: B
Comps: 55
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.461 | 0.583 | 12.2% | $1.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.200 | 0.443 | 24.3% | $677K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.347 | 0.417 | 6.9% | $457K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P74 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P6 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |