MILDRED MITCHELL-BATEMAN HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
MILDRED MITCHELL-BATEMAN HOSPITAL is a 110-bed under-performing / distressed in nan, WV with $3.3M in net patient revenue and a -100.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 3.2% Medicare, 0.7% Medicaid, and 96.1% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $260K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -100.0% to -1588.4% (+778bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $3.3M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-53.4M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -100.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 93.1% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $30K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 10.5% |
| Distress Probability ML | 36.2% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
WV has 62 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.3%. The target's margin of -100.0% places it below the state median. Among 18 size-comparable peers (55-220 beds), the median margin is 3.8%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (55-220), prioritizing same-state peers. 18 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MILDRED MITCHELL-BATEMAN HOSPI (Target) | WV | 110 | $3.3M | -100.0% |
| WHEELING HOSPITAL | WV | 189 | $411.4M | -8.5% |
| CITY HOSPITAL INC. | WV | 163 | $304.2M | -2.8% |
| PRINCETON COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WV | 115 | $290.2M | 12.8% |
| THOMAS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | WV | 176 | $209.0M | 26.7% |
| WEIRTON MEDICAL CENTER | WV | 127 | $182.4M | 9.4% |
| MONONGALIA GENERAL HOSPITAL | WV | 160 | $155.1M | -5.3% |
| REYNOLDS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | WV | 94 | $123.6M | 3.8% |
| BECKLEY ARH | WV | 72 | $109.2M | -37.8% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $260K (778bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $73K | +217bp | 12mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $70K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $67K | +200bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $41K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +29bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-53.4M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$260K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-53.2M |
| Current Margin | -100.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -1588.4% |
| WC Released (1x) | $128K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-82.2M | $-349.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-82.2M | $-411.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-74.0M | $-437.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-74.0M | $-499.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-90.4M | $-324.4M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-90.4M | $-386.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Low | Low net-to-gross ratio | Large contractual allowances suggest pricing discipline issues. Mitigant: payer renegotiation is an additional upside lever |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 18 hospitals with 55-220 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=19)
- Comp margins: P25=-5.3% / P50=3.8% / P75=12.8%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.