GREAT PLAINS HEALTH
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
GREAT PLAINS HEALTH is a 96-bed suburban community hospital in nan, NE with $268.8M in net patient revenue and a 3.9% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 54.0% Medicare, 15.7% Medicaid, and 30.3% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $19.8M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 3.9% to 11.3% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $268.8M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $10.5M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 3.9% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 52.7% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $2.8M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 38.6% |
| Distress Probability ML | 50.1% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
NE has 98 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -6.3%. The target's margin of 3.9% places it above the state median. Among 21 size-comparable peers (48-192 beds), the median margin is -8.8%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (48-192), prioritizing same-state peers. 21 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GREAT PLAINS HEALTH (Target) | NE | 96 | $268.8M | 3.9% |
| CHILDRENS HOSPITAL & MEDICAL C | NE | 186 | $501.1M | -10.3% |
| REGIONAL WEST MEDICAL CENTER | NE | 122 | $218.4M | -12.9% |
| CHI HEALTH LAKESIDE | NE | 125 | $200.3M | 15.3% |
| MARY LANNING MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | NE | 97 | $200.0M | -8.9% |
| FAITH REGIONAL HEALTH SERVICES | NE | 122 | $198.1M | 10.1% |
| CHI HEALTH IMMANUEL | NE | 177 | $187.9M | -8.8% |
| MADONNA REHABILITATION LTC HOS | NE | 77 | $177.1M | -8.8% |
| MADONNA REHAB OMAHA LTC HOSPIT | NE | 67 | $177.1M | -8.8% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $19.8M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $5.6M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $5.4M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $5.3M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $3.3M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $172K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $10.5M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$19.8M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $30.3M |
| Current Margin | 3.9% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 11.3% |
| WC Released (1x) | $10.3M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $16.1M | $267.0M | 16.56x | 75.3% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $16.1M | $299.0M | 18.54x | 79.3% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $14.5M | $369.5M | 25.46x | 91.1% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $14.5M | $407.4M | 28.07x | 94.8% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $17.7M | $162.8M | 9.18x | 55.8% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $17.7M | $184.9M | 10.42x | 59.8% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 50.1% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 21 hospitals with 48-192 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=22)
- Comp margins: P25=-10.5% / P50=-8.8% / P75=-1.2%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.