ML Analysis — GREAT PLAINS HEALTH
CCN 280065 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health14/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.3%, 29.3%]. P65 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2800502.771 | +0.1705 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2691333.740 | -0.1274 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.117 | +0.0243 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1475379.028 | +0.0200 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.063 | -0.0129 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.1%
Distress Risk
$6.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
6.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P64. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NE distress rate: 53.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 2800502.771 | -0.072 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.157 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.540 | +0.037 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.386 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 96.000 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.527 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.1M
Current margin: 3.9%
Projected margin: 6.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 21
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.303 | 0.594 | 29.0% | $4.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.386 | 0.425 | 3.9% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.527 | 0.608 | 8.1% | $537K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P34 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |