LTAC OF LOUISIANA LLC
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
LTAC OF LOUISIANA LLC is a 18-bed community hospital in LAFAYETTE PARISH, LA with $12.0M in net patient revenue and a 25.2% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 70.8% Medicare, 0.0% Medicaid, and 29.2% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $886K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 25.2% to 32.6% (+739bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $12.0M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $3.0M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 25.2% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 90.2% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $666K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 48.6% |
| Distress Probability ML | nan% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
LA has 212 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -3.5%. The target's margin of 25.2% places it above the state median. Among 106 size-comparable peers (9-36 beds), the median margin is -1.8%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (9-36), prioritizing same-state peers. 106 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTAC OF LOUISIANA LLC (Target) | LA | 18 | $12.0M | 25.2% |
| SPECIALISTS HOSPITAL OF SHREVE | LA | 15 | $79.1M | 21.3% |
| OCHSNER BAYOU LLC | LA | 25 | $76.5M | -0.9% |
| OUR LADY OF THE ANGELS HOSPITA | LA | 36 | $76.2M | -4.9% |
| CENTRAL LOUISIANA SURGICAL HOS | LA | 24 | $69.1M | 7.7% |
| ST. CHARLES PARISH HOSPITAL | LA | 27 | $64.0M | -5.1% |
| AVALA | LA | 21 | $64.0M | 7.4% |
| THE SPINE HOSPITAL OF LOUISIAN | LA | 23 | $57.4M | 35.4% |
| PARK PLACE SURGERY CENTER | LA | 10 | $51.6M | 15.4% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $886K (739bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $252K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $240K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $239K | +199bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $146K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +8bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $3.0M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$886K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $3.9M |
| Current Margin | 25.2% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 32.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $460K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $4.7M | $28.8M | 6.19x | 44.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $4.7M | $33.2M | 7.14x | 48.1% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $4.2M | $37.6M | 8.99x | 55.1% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $4.2M | $42.3M | 10.10x | 58.8% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $5.1M | $22.9M | 4.47x | 34.9% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $5.1M | $26.8M | 5.24x | 39.3% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Heavy Medicare dependence | Medicare comprises 70.8% of days; rate updates may lag inflation. Mitigant: CDI/CMI lever directly increases Medicare reimbursement |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 106 hospitals with 9-36 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=108)
- Comp margins: P25=-14.2% / P50=-1.8% / P75=7.5%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.