CARLE FOUNDATION HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
CARLE FOUNDATION HOSPITAL is a 433-bed suburban community hospital in CHAMPAIGN, IL with $1.22B in net patient revenue and a 11.8% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 26.1% Medicare, 9.6% Medicaid, and 64.3% commercial.
Thesis: Platform Growth. Our ML models identify $90.0M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 11.8% to 19.2% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $1.22B |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $144.3M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 11.8% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 85.9% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $2.8M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 24.3% |
| Distress Probability ML | 39.4% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
IL has 208 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -5.3%. The target's margin of 11.8% places it above the state median. Among 44 size-comparable peers (216-866 beds), the median margin is -6.9%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (216-866), prioritizing same-state peers. 44 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARLE FOUNDATION HOSPITAL (Target) | IL | 433 | $1.22B | 11.8% |
| UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO HOSPITAL | IL | 686 | $2.40B | -13.3% |
| RUSH UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | IL | 598 | $2.30B | -20.3% |
| NORTHSHORE UNIVERSITY HEALTHSY | IL | 672 | $2.27B | 1.1% |
| LOYOLA UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENT | IL | 516 | $1.40B | -9.9% |
| ADVOCATE CHRIST HOSPITAL | IL | 711 | $1.37B | 4.7% |
| SAINT FRANCIS MEDICAL CENTER | IL | 649 | $1.30B | 9.7% |
| CENTRAL DUPAGE HOSPITAL | IL | 347 | $1.30B | 16.4% |
| ANN & ROBERT H. LURIE CHILDREN | IL | 364 | $1.17B | -12.8% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $90.0M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $25.7M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $24.5M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $24.2M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $14.9M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $783K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $144.3M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$90.0M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $234.3M |
| Current Margin | 11.8% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 19.2% |
| WC Released (1x) | $46.9M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $222.0M | $1.85B | 8.34x | 52.8% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $222.0M | $2.11B | 9.50x | 56.9% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $199.8M | $2.48B | 12.41x | 65.5% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $199.8M | $2.76B | 13.83x | 69.1% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $244.2M | $1.33B | 5.45x | 40.4% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $244.2M | $1.54B | 6.32x | 44.6% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Standard execution risk | RCM improvement requires management buy-in and 12-18 month implementation timeline |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 44 hospitals with 216-866 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=45)
- Comp margins: P25=-13.9% / P50=-6.9% / P75=2.1%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.