LOST RIVERS HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
LOST RIVERS HOSPITAL is a 14-bed rural/critical access in BUTTE, ID with $11.2M in net patient revenue and a -20.6% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 73.2% Medicare, 1.1% Medicaid, and 25.8% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $827K in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -20.6% to -13.2% (+740bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $11.2M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-2.3M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -20.6% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 3.7% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $798K |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 70.0% |
| Distress Probability ML | 64.4% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
ID has 51 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -3.5%. The target's margin of -20.6% places it below the state median. Among 27 size-comparable peers (7-28 beds), the median margin is -5.4%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (7-28), prioritizing same-state peers. 27 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOST RIVERS HOSPITAL (Target) | ID | 14 | $11.2M | -20.6% |
| BINGHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | ID | 25 | $164.8M | -3.6% |
| TREASURE VALLEY HOSPITAL | ID | 28 | $114.8M | 36.1% |
| ST. LUKES WOOD RIVER MEDICAL C | ID | 25 | $99.1M | 13.5% |
| GRITMAN MEDICAL CENTER | ID | 25 | $92.4M | -6.4% |
| BONNER GENERAL HOSPITAL | ID | 25 | $61.2M | -7.6% |
| NORTH CANYON MEDICAL CENTER | ID | 16 | $53.7M | 4.3% |
| CASSIA REGIONAL HOSPITAL | ID | 25 | $53.5M | -9.9% |
| MINIDOKA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | ID | 23 | $48.0M | -1.3% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $827K (740bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $235K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $223K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $223K | +200bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $136K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $10K | +9bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-2.3M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$827K |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-1.5M |
| Current Margin | -20.6% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -13.2% |
| WC Released (1x) | $429K |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-3.5M | $-6.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-3.5M | $-8.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-3.2M | $-7.2M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-3.2M | $-8.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-3.9M | $-9.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-3.9M | $-12.2M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Medium | Heavy Medicare dependence | Medicare comprises 73.2% of days; rate updates may lag inflation. Mitigant: CDI/CMI lever directly increases Medicare reimbursement |
| Medium | Low occupancy | At 3.7%, fixed costs are spread over fewer patient days. Mitigant: volume growth is an additional upside lever not modeled in base case |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 64.4% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 27 hospitals with 7-28 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=29)
- Comp margins: P25=-9.5% / P50=-5.4% / P75=-1.8%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.