ST. ALPHONSUS REGIONAL MED CENTER
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
ST. ALPHONSUS REGIONAL MED CENTER is a 374-bed suburban community hospital in ADA, ID with $725.8M in net patient revenue and a -9.5% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 22.1% Medicare, 26.7% Medicaid, and 51.3% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $53.4M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -9.5% to -2.1% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $725.8M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-68.6M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -9.5% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 61.7% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.9M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 34.8% |
| Distress Probability ML | 51.1% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
ID has 51 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -3.5%. The target's margin of -9.5% places it below the state median. Among 1253 size-comparable peers (187-748 beds), the median margin is -3.8%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (187-748), prioritizing same-state peers. 1253 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST. ALPHONSUS REGIONAL MED CEN (Target) | ID | 374 | $725.8M | -9.5% |
| ST. LUKES HOSPITAL | PA | 633 | $8.94B | 87.9% |
| STANFORD HEALTH CARE | CA | 657 | $6.76B | 3.7% |
| UT MD ANDERSON CANCER CENTER | TX | 721 | $4.90B | -0.8% |
| MEMORIAL HOSPITAL FOR CANCER A | NY | 514 | $4.34B | -32.5% |
| UC DAVIS MEDICAL CENTER | CA | 666 | $3.28B | -11.5% |
| UCSD MEDICAL CENTER | CA | 718 | $3.06B | -7.2% |
| U OF U HOSPITALS & CLINICS | UT | 616 | $2.72B | -1.8% |
| THE CHILDRENS HOSPITAL OF PHIL | PA | 667 | $2.70B | -26.8% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $53.4M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $15.2M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $14.5M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $14.4M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $8.8M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $465K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-68.6M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$53.4M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-15.2M |
| Current Margin | -9.5% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -2.1% |
| WC Released (1x) | $27.8M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-105.5M | $81.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-105.5M | $55.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-95.0M | $197.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-95.0M | $187.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-116.1M | $-151.1M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-116.1M | $-203.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Medium | Elevated Medicaid exposure (26.7%) | Medicaid reimburses below cost in most states. Mitigant: denial reduction lever has highest impact on Medicaid claims |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 51.1% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 1253 hospitals with 187-748 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=4)
- Comp margins: P25=-13.1% / P50=-3.8% / P75=5.1%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.