ML Analysis — ST. ALPHONSUS REGIONAL MED CENTER
CCN 130007 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health11/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.6%, 21.9%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2124157.591 | -0.0575 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1940745.390 | +0.0505 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.924 | +0.0360 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 374.000 | -0.0352 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.267 | -0.0215 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
51.1%
Distress Risk
$4.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-8.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P86. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| CLARA MAASS MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 259 |
| PRESENCE SAINTS MARY & ELIZABETH MED | IL | 266 |
| ADVENTIST HEALTH BAKERSFIELD | CA | 254 |
| BRISTOL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 244 |
| HOLSTON VALLEY HOSP & MED CTR | TN | 286 |
| SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 230 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
ID distress rate: 46.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.267 | +0.177 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.617 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 374.000 | +0.030 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1940745.390 | -0.021 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.221 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.348 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.7M
Current margin: -9.4%
Projected margin: -8.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 1253
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.513 | 0.750 | 23.8% | $3.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.617 | 0.789 | 17.2% | $1.1M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |