EMORY JOHNS CREEK HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
EMORY JOHNS CREEK HOSPITAL is a 154-bed suburban community hospital in FULTON, GA with $269.1M in net patient revenue and a 3.5% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 25.3% Medicare, 2.4% Medicaid, and 72.2% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $19.8M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 3.5% to 10.9% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $269.1M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $9.5M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 3.5% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 87.4% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.7M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 29.9% |
| Distress Probability ML | 38.5% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
GA has 165 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -2.8%. The target's margin of 3.5% places it above the state median. Among 53 size-comparable peers (77-308 beds), the median margin is -2.0%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (77-308), prioritizing same-state peers. 53 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMORY JOHNS CREEK HOSPITAL (Target) | GA | 154 | $269.1M | 3.5% |
| NORTHSIDE HOSPITAL-CHEROKEE I | GA | 212 | $623.5M | -0.1% |
| PIEDMONT FAYETTE HOSPITAL INC. | GA | 294 | $516.0M | 13.2% |
| FLOYD MEDICAL CENTER | GA | 227 | $481.7M | 13.9% |
| DOCTORS HOSPITAL OF AUGUSTA | GA | 291 | $471.5M | 30.2% |
| PIEDMONT HENRY HOSPITAL INC. | GA | 297 | $445.6M | 13.2% |
| CANDLER HOSPITAL INC | GA | 263 | $440.8M | -13.7% |
| TIFT REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | GA | 181 | $372.8M | -10.9% |
| PIEDMONT NEWNAN HOSPITAL INC. | GA | 177 | $366.0M | 19.2% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $19.8M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $5.7M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $5.4M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $5.3M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $3.3M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $172K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $9.5M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$19.8M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $29.3M |
| Current Margin | 3.5% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 10.9% |
| WC Released (1x) | $10.3M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $14.6M | $260.7M | 17.84x | 78.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $14.6M | $291.5M | 19.95x | 82.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $13.1M | $361.6M | 27.50x | 94.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $13.1M | $398.4M | 30.30x | 97.8% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $16.1M | $156.9M | 9.76x | 57.7% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $16.1M | $177.8M | 11.07x | 61.7% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Standard execution risk | RCM improvement requires management buy-in and 12-18 month implementation timeline |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 53 hospitals with 77-308 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=54)
- Comp margins: P25=-13.2% / P50=-2.0% / P75=7.0%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.