CMH OF SAN BUENAVENTURA
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
CMH OF SAN BUENAVENTURA is a 170-bed community hospital in VENTURA, CA with $498.5M in net patient revenue and a -7.6% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 21.6% Medicare, 0.0% Medicaid, and 78.4% commercial.
Thesis: Undervalued. Our ML models identify $36.7M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -7.6% to -0.3% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $498.5M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-38.1M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -7.6% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 91.7% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $2.9M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 29.2% |
| Distress Probability ML | nan% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
CA has 414 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -4.9%. The target's margin of -7.6% places it below the state median. Among 207 size-comparable peers (85-340 beds), the median margin is -4.5%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (85-340), prioritizing same-state peers. 207 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMH OF SAN BUENAVENTURA (Target) | CA | 170 | $498.5M | -7.6% |
| CITY OF HOPE NATIONAL MEDICAL | CA | 217 | $1.83B | -10.7% |
| CHILDRENS HOSPITAL OF ORANGE C | CA | 334 | $1.31B | 0.7% |
| KECK HOSPITAL OF USC | CA | 301 | $1.11B | -20.8% |
| SUTTER ROSEVILLE MEDICAL CENTE | CA | 318 | $1.07B | 12.1% |
| CALIFORNIA PACIFIC MEDICAL CEN | CA | 274 | $987.8M | -18.5% |
| ZUCKERBERG SAN FRANCISCO GENER | CA | 284 | $889.5M | -41.7% |
| SANTA MONICA UCLA MEDICAL CENT | CA | 281 | $835.9M | 2.8% |
| ENLOE MEDICAL CENTER | CA | 258 | $834.4M | -0.5% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $36.7M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $10.5M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $10.0M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $9.9M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $6.1M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $319K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-38.1M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$36.7M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $-1.4M |
| Current Margin | -7.6% |
| Pro Forma Margin | -0.3% |
| WC Released (1x) | $19.1M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-58.6M | $115.5M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-58.6M | $108.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-52.8M | $210.0M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-52.8M | $213.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-64.5M | $-48.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-64.5M | $-74.8M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 207 hospitals with 85-340 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=208)
- Comp margins: P25=-17.6% / P50=-4.5% / P75=3.9%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.