ML Analysis — CMH OF SAN BUENAVENTURA
CCN 050394 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position4/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
4.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-23.7%, 32.9%]. P73 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2932249.759 | +0.1889 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3156465.777 | -0.1847 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2688643.836 | +0.0602 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Occupancy | 0.917 | +0.0223 | Higher Occupancy increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.136 | +0.0177 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 58%Turnaround possible (58%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-7.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.917 | -0.364 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.216 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2932249.759 | -0.080 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.292 | -0.034 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 170.000 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: -7.6%
Projected margin: -7.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 207
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |