MT. GRAHAM REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
MT. GRAHAM REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER is a 25-bed safety-net/medicaid heavy in GRAHAM, AZ with $75.2M in net patient revenue and a -2.8% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 19.9% Medicare, 27.6% Medicaid, and 52.5% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $5.5M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from -2.8% to 4.6% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $75.2M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $-2.1M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | -2.8% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 41.0% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $3.0M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 43.0% |
| Distress Probability ML | 54.3% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
AZ has 124 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.8%. The target's margin of -2.8% places it below the state median. Among 41 size-comparable peers (12-50 beds), the median margin is -0.7%. The target's below-peer margin suggests operational improvement opportunity.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (12-50), prioritizing same-state peers. 41 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT. GRAHAM REGIONAL MEDICAL CE (Target) | AZ | 25 | $75.2M | -2.8% |
| ARIZONA GENERAL HOSPITAL | AZ | 50 | $116.2M | -6.6% |
| ARIZONA GENERAL HOSPITAL | AZ | 16 | $97.1M | 10.4% |
| THE CORE INSTITUTE SPECIALTY H | AZ | 28 | $91.2M | 9.2% |
| COBRE VALLEY REG. MEDICAL CENT | AZ | 25 | $74.9M | -10.3% |
| COPPER QUEEN COMM. HOSP. | AZ | 14 | $63.5M | 6.6% |
| MT. GRAHAM REGIONAL MEDICAL CE | AZ | 25 | $49.4M | -6.8% |
| BANNER PAYSON MEDICAL CENTER | AZ | 25 | $49.3M | 0.0% |
| AZ SPINE & JOINT HOSPITAL | AZ | 23 | $45.1M | 19.4% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $5.5M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $1.6M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $1.5M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $1.5M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $915K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $48K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $-2.1M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$5.5M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $3.4M |
| Current Margin | -2.8% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 4.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $2.9M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $-3.2M | $41.6M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $-3.2M | $44.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $-2.9M | $61.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $-2.9M | $66.7M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $-3.5M | $14.9M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $-3.5M | $15.3M | 0.00x | -100.0% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| High | Negative operating margin | RCM uplift bridge shows clear path to profitability; working capital release provides near-term cash cushion |
| Medium | Elevated Medicaid exposure (27.6%) | Medicaid reimburses below cost in most states. Mitigant: denial reduction lever has highest impact on Medicaid claims |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 54.3% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 41 hospitals with 12-50 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=42)
- Comp margins: P25=-10.1% / P50=-0.7% / P75=8.2%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.