ARIZONA GENERAL HOSPITAL
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
ARIZONA GENERAL HOSPITAL is a 16-bed safety-net/medicaid heavy in MARICOPA, AZ with $97.1M in net patient revenue and a 10.4% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 10.5% Medicare, 37.7% Medicaid, and 51.8% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $7.1M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 10.4% to 17.8% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $97.1M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $10.1M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 10.4% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 35.0% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $6.1M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 15.5% |
| Distress Probability ML | 50.2% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
AZ has 124 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.8%. The target's margin of 10.4% places it above the state median. Among 29 size-comparable peers (8-32 beds), the median margin is -3.8%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (8-32), prioritizing same-state peers. 29 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZONA GENERAL HOSPITAL (Target) | AZ | 16 | $97.1M | 10.4% |
| THE CORE INSTITUTE SPECIALTY H | AZ | 28 | $91.2M | 9.2% |
| MT. GRAHAM REGIONAL MEDICAL CE | AZ | 25 | $75.2M | -2.8% |
| COBRE VALLEY REG. MEDICAL CENT | AZ | 25 | $74.9M | -10.3% |
| COPPER QUEEN COMM. HOSP. | AZ | 14 | $63.5M | 6.6% |
| MT. GRAHAM REGIONAL MEDICAL CE | AZ | 25 | $49.4M | -6.8% |
| BANNER PAYSON MEDICAL CENTER | AZ | 25 | $49.3M | 0.0% |
| AZ SPINE & JOINT HOSPITAL | AZ | 23 | $45.1M | 19.4% |
| WINSLOW MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | AZ | 25 | $40.1M | -6.8% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $7.1M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $2.0M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $1.9M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $1.9M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $1.2M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $62K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $10.1M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$7.1M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $17.3M |
| Current Margin | 10.4% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 17.8% |
| WC Released (1x) | $3.7M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $15.6M | $138.2M | 8.88x | 54.8% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $15.6M | $157.1M | 10.09x | 58.8% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $14.0M | $185.7M | 13.26x | 67.7% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $14.0M | $206.7M | 14.76x | 71.3% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $17.1M | $97.4M | 5.69x | 41.6% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $17.1M | $112.7M | 6.58x | 45.8% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Elevated Medicaid exposure (37.7%) | Medicaid reimburses below cost in most states. Mitigant: denial reduction lever has highest impact on Medicaid claims |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 50.2% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
| Low | Low net-to-gross ratio | Large contractual allowances suggest pricing discipline issues. Mitigant: payer renegotiation is an additional upside lever |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 29 hospitals with 8-32 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=31)
- Comp margins: P25=-10.5% / P50=-3.8% / P75=6.9%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.