ML Analysis — ARIZONA GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 030136 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside8/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
10.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-18.0%, 38.6%]. P83 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 6067253.688 | +0.6265 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 5434840.375 | -0.4654 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2124577.704 | +0.0415 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.377 | -0.0348 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
50.2%
Distress Risk
$7.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
18.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P88. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.377 | +0.287 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 6067253.688 | -0.265 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.350 | +0.162 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.155 | -0.095 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.105 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.7M
Current margin: 10.4%
Projected margin: 18.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 29
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.155 | 0.512 | 35.6% | $4.0M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.518 | 0.681 | 16.3% | $2.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.350 | 0.527 | 17.7% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |