ST. VINCENTS CHILTON
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
ST. VINCENTS CHILTON is a 26-bed suburban community hospital in CHILTON, AL with $29.1M in net patient revenue and a 9.2% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 19.0% Medicare, 7.9% Medicaid, and 73.1% commercial.
Thesis: Turnaround. Our ML models identify $2.1M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 9.2% to 16.6% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $29.1M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $2.7M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 9.2% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 26.1% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.1M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 18.1% |
| Distress Probability ML | 52.8% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
AL has 115 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -8.5%. The target's margin of 9.2% places it above the state median. Among 52 size-comparable peers (13-52 beds), the median margin is -16.3%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (13-52), prioritizing same-state peers. 52 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST. VINCENTS CHILTON (Target) | AL | 26 | $29.1M | 9.2% |
| RUSSELL MEDICAL CENTER | AL | 45 | $75.3M | -14.8% |
| JACK HUGHSTON MEMORIAL HOSPITA | AL | 47 | $75.2M | 6.5% |
| NORTH BALDWIN INFIRMARY | AL | 35 | $55.3M | -3.3% |
| HIGHLANDS MEDICAL CENTER | AL | 45 | $45.9M | -30.2% |
| ST. VINCENTS ST. CLAIR | AL | 40 | $40.8M | 8.7% |
| TROY REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | AL | 41 | $39.0M | -9.1% |
| WHITFIELD REGIONAL HOSPITAL | AL | 47 | $38.7M | -21.3% |
| RUSSELLVILLE HOSPITAL | AL | 49 | $30.8M | -7.9% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $2.1M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $610K | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $581K | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $576K | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $354K | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $19K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $2.7M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$2.1M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $4.8M |
| Current Margin | 9.2% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 16.6% |
| WC Released (1x) | $1.1M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $4.1M | $39.1M | 9.47x | 56.8% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $4.1M | $44.4M | 10.74x | 60.8% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $3.7M | $52.8M | 14.19x | 70.0% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $3.7M | $58.7M | 15.78x | 73.6% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $4.5M | $27.1M | 5.96x | 42.9% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $4.5M | $31.3M | 6.88x | 47.1% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Medium | Low occupancy | At 26.1%, fixed costs are spread over fewer patient days. Mitigant: volume growth is an additional upside lever not modeled in base case |
| High | Elevated distress probability | Model estimates 52.8% probability of financial distress. Mitigant: distressed entry pricing (7-9x) compensates for risk |
| Low | Low net-to-gross ratio | Large contractual allowances suggest pricing discipline issues. Mitigant: payer renegotiation is an additional upside lever |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 52 hospitals with 13-52 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=53)
- Comp margins: P25=-28.9% / P50=-16.3% / P75=-4.9%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.