Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 78% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Revenue per Bed, Commercial Payer %. Risk-adjusted uplift: $3.0M (vs $3.9M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $1.5M | $1.5M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $1.4M | $40K | $1.5M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $226K | $669K | $895K | $2.8M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $47K | $47K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 61.1% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $368K | $736K | $1.1M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $364K | $728K | $1.1M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $298K | $597K | $895K | $895K | $895K | $895K | $895K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $24K | $47K | $47K | $47K | $47K | $47K | $47K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $1.1M | $2.1M | $3.1M | $3.9M | $3.9M | $3.9M | $3.9M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $3.9M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 57% / 9.5x | 61% / 10.9x | 65% / 12.3x | 67% / 13.0x | 69% / 13.7x |
| 9.0x | 52% / 8.1x | 56% / 9.3x | 60% / 10.6x | 62% / 11.2x | 64% / 11.8x |
| 10.0x | 47% / 6.9x | 52% / 8.1x | 56% / 9.2x | 58% / 9.7x | 59% / 10.3x |
| 11.0x | 43% / 6.0x | 48% / 7.0x | 52% / 8.1x | 54% / 8.6x | 55% / 9.1x |
| 12.0x | 39% / 5.2x | 44% / 6.2x | 48% / 7.1x | 50% / 7.6x | 52% / 8.1x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 18% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 5.4x, adding 3.1 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $6.7M | — | $6.7M | 9.1% |
| Year 1 | $6.9M | +$2.6M | $9.5M | 12.9% |
| Year 2 | $7.1M | +$3.9M | $11.0M | 14.9% |
| Year 3 | $7.3M | +$3.9M | $11.2M | 15.2% |
| Year 4 | $7.5M | +$3.9M | $11.4M | 15.5% |
| Year 5 | $7.8M | +$3.9M | $11.6M | 15.8% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $736K | $1.1M | $1.5M | $1.8M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $728K | $1.1M | $1.5M | $1.7M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $448K | $671K | $895K | $1.1M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $24K | $35K | $47K | $56K |
| Total | $1.9M | $2.9M | $3.9M | $4.6M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 13 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 9.1% | -23.5% | -6.2% | -4.1% | P92 |
| Net-to-Gross | 47.4% | 50.0% | 56.5% | 61.1% | P15 |
| Occupancy | 53.3% | 26.0% | 33.3% | 44.3% | P85 |
| Rev/Bed | $7.4M | $1.4M | $1.9M | $2.7M | P77 |
| Exp/Bed | $6.7M | $1.5M | $2.3M | $2.7M | P77 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.