ML Analysis — SUMMIT PACIFIC MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 501304 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
19.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-8.9%, 47.7%]. P92 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 7356426.800 | +0.8064 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 6687529.800 | -0.6197 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 3918053.068 | +0.1010 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.303 | -0.0481 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.103 | -0.0426 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
41.5%
Distress Risk
$4.6M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
15.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P99. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WA distress rate: 67.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 7356426.800 | -0.341 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.710 | +0.066 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.027 | -0.062 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.474 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 10.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.533 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.6M
Current margin: 9.1%
Projected margin: 15.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 12
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.263 | 0.494 | 23.1% | $3.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.474 | 0.612 | 13.8% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P72 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |