ML Analysis — BOGALUSA REHABILITATION HOSPITAL
CCN 713026 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency3/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.5%, 22.1%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 419076.400 | -0.1620 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 408101.000 | +0.1539 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.021 | +0.0519 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.303 | -0.0481 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 10.000 | +0.0216 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
47.7%
Distress Risk
$10.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
260.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P95. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.643 | -0.109 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.915 | +0.101 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.014 | -0.074 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 419076.400 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.298 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 10.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.8M
Current margin: 2.6%
Projected margin: 260.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 36
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.071 | 0.711 | 64.1% | $9.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.643 | 0.795 | 15.2% | $1000K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.298 | 0.668 | 37.0% | $181K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.8% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P3 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |