ML Analysis — WYOMNG BEHAVIORAL INSTITUTE
CCN 534004 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.0%, 15.6%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 245663.482 | -0.1862 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 229669.177 | +0.1759 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.491 | -0.0486 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.113 | +0.0255 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 193775.237 | -0.0225 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
53.5%
Distress Risk
$5.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
34.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P19. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WY distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.491 | +0.401 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.789 | -0.245 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 245663.482 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.139 | -0.032 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.305 | -0.028 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 85.000 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.9M
Current margin: 6.5%
Projected margin: 34.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 2137
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.370 | 0.744 | 37.4% | $5.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.305 | 0.416 | 11.1% | $270K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |