ML Analysis — ELKHORN VALLEY REHABILITATION HOSPIT
CCN 533027 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside8/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 10.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.2%, 25.4%]. P55 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 425895.000 | -0.1610 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 382535.100 | +0.1570 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.748 | +0.0425 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.506 | +0.0238 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0218 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
52.6%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
34.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P91. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WY distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.748 | +0.169 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.677 | -0.141 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 425895.000 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.708 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.073 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: 10.2%
Projected margin: 34.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 15
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.219 | 0.491 | 27.2% | $4.1M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |