ML Analysis — STAR VALLEY HOSPITAL
CCN 531313 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.0%, 23.6%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3727185.182 | +0.2998 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3744680.091 | -0.2572 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.667 | +0.0334 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.091 | -0.0298 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0218 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.8%
Distress Risk
$1.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
0.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P73. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WY distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.287 | +0.221 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.667 | +0.133 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3727185.182 | -0.127 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.530 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.062 | -0.027 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 22.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.1M
Current margin: -0.5%
Projected margin: 0.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 17
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.287 | 0.391 | 10.4% | $684K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.408 | 0.433 | 2.6% | $384K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P47 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |