ML Analysis — MEMORIAL HOSPITAL OF CONVERSE COUNTY
CCN 531302 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.9%, 23.7%]. P50 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 3708847.760 | +0.2973 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3778462.760 | -0.2613 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0218 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
52.0%
Distress Risk
$3.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.8%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P73. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WY distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.329 | +0.182 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3708847.760 | -0.126 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.457 | +0.039 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.539 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.082 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.5M
Current margin: -1.9%
Projected margin: 1.8%
Grade: D
Comps: 17
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.457 | 0.666 | 20.9% | $2.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.379 | 0.433 | 5.5% | $821K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.329 | 0.386 | 5.7% | $376K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P61 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |