ML Analysis — EVANSTON REGIONAL
CCN 530032 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 17.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.3%, 15.3%]. P31 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 908661.750 | +0.0922 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1103220.688 | -0.0665 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 109660.892 | -0.0253 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.099 | -0.0242 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0218 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
61.3%
Distress Risk
$2.9M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
26.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P88. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WY distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.099 | +0.395 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.167 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1103220.688 | +0.028 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 32.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.338 | +0.002 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.369 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.9M
Current margin: 17.6%
Projected margin: 26.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 15
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.099 | 0.360 | 26.1% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.369 | 0.665 | 29.6% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P55 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |