ML Analysis — IVINSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 530025 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside9/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 9.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.1%, 19.5%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0218 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.174 | -0.0200 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 293819.237 | -0.0192 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.531 | +0.0182 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1691335.474 | +0.0156 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
59.9%
Distress Risk
$8.2M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
15.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P68. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WY distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.174 | +0.326 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.531 | +0.072 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.114 | +0.025 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.454 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 76.000 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1691335.474 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.2M
Current margin: 9.0%
Projected margin: 15.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 2229
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.431 | 0.734 | 30.3% | $4.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.174 | 0.728 | 55.5% | $3.7M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P34 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |