ML Analysis — CHEYENNE REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 530014 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
64
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health14/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.8%, 28.8%]. P63 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2533090.150 | +0.1331 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2418461.252 | -0.0938 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1577923.252 | +0.0234 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0218 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.990 | +0.0143 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.2%
Distress Risk
$5.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
6.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P29. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WY distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.623 | -0.091 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2533090.150 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.430 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.096 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.357 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 147.000 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.8M
Current margin: 4.5%
Projected margin: 6.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 2055
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.473 | 0.757 | 28.4% | $4.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.623 | 0.750 | 12.7% | $838K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.357 | 0.374 | 1.7% | $734K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |