ML Analysis — MEM. HOSPITAL OF SHERIDAN CTY.
CCN 530006 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.9%, 19.7%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.075 | -0.0218 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 539204.195 | -0.0111 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.341 | -0.0104 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 88.000 | +0.0095 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.432 | +0.0071 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving State Peer Margin.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.7%
Distress Risk
$7.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
1.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P27. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WY distress rate: 55.2%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.341 | +0.171 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.503 | +0.030 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.432 | +0.028 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 88.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.085 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1579934.205 | -0.000 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.6M
Current margin: -4.0%
Projected margin: 1.5%
Grade: D
Comps: 2164
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.412 | 0.746 | 33.4% | $5.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.341 | 0.739 | 39.7% | $2.6M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P38 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |