ML Analysis — FOND DU LAC COUNTY HEALTH CARE CTR
CCN 524025 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
45
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 2.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.4%, 20.2%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 734177.440 | -0.1180 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 715997.680 | +0.1159 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.950 | +0.0652 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.383 | -0.0521 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.451 | -0.0439 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
66.4%
Distress Risk
$3.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
23.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P10. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.451 | +0.362 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.950 | +0.259 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.433 | +0.085 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 734177.440 | +0.050 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.146 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.9M
Current margin: 2.5%
Projected margin: 23.9%
Grade: A
Comps: 87
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.403 | 0.636 | 23.3% | $3.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.433 | 0.499 | 6.6% | $438K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P29 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |