ML Analysis — CHILDRENS HOSPITAL OF WISCONSIN
CCN 523300 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
61
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health19/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
2.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-26.3%, 30.3%]. P67 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2668118.064 | +0.1520 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2534334.591 | -0.1081 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.388 | -0.0536 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.697 | +0.0307 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
50.8%
Distress Risk
$631K
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
5.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P74. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.285 | +0.196 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.647 | -0.113 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.543 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2668118.064 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.056 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 298.000 | +0.020 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $631K
Current margin: 5.0%
Projected margin: 5.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 24
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.714 | 0.745 | 3.1% | $469K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.647 | 0.671 | 2.5% | $162K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |