ML Analysis — ST CROIX REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 521337 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
62
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -31.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.9%, 21.7%]. P45 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 5687915.320 | -0.4965 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 4335785.720 | +0.3848 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2696027.197 | +0.0605 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
42.6%
Distress Risk
$2.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-28.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P94. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC | WI | 58 |
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 4335785.720 | -0.163 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.622 | -0.090 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.026 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.454 | +0.038 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.451 | +0.021 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.7M
Current margin: -31.2%
Projected margin: -28.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 87
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.524 | 0.636 | 11.2% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.454 | 0.530 | 7.7% | $972K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P61 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |