ML Analysis — MARSHFIELD MEDICAL CENTER-MINOCQUA
CCN 520212 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
64
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
8.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -12.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-19.7%, 36.9%]. P80 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 7668702.579 | -0.7406 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 6823006.579 | +0.7320 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 4574907.079 | +0.1228 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.944 | -0.0332 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 65%Model predicts 65% probability of positive margin. Key drivers: Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
37.3%
Distress Risk
$2.3M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-10.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P98. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 6823006.579 | -0.310 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.671 | -0.135 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.053 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 19.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.384 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.318 | -0.002 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.3M
Current margin: -12.4%
Projected margin: -10.6%
Grade: D
Comps: 73
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.384 | 0.534 | 15.0% | $2.3M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P57 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |