ML Analysis — HOLY FAMILY MEMORIAL INC
CCN 520107 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -29.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.3%, 19.3%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1366956.138 | -0.0296 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 58.000 | +0.0142 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1767681.397 | -0.0136 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 473430.439 | -0.0133 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Under-Performing / Distre
Archetype
52.1%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-24.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Under-Performing / Distressed
Percentile within cluster: P0. Deeply negative margins signal severe distress. Evaluate asset-level acquisition at 4-6x normalized EBITDA.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| MIDDLESBORO ARH | KY | 46 |
| ATRIUM HEALTH NAVICENT BALDWIN | GA | 86 |
| BON SECOURS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | NY | 98 |
| ADVANCED SPECIALTY HOSP. OF TOLEDO | OH | 40 |
| COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER BRANCH | MI | 75 |
| MEDICAL CENTER BARBOUR | AL | 30 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.346 | +0.166 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.278 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.076 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1366956.138 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 58.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.310 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: -29.3%
Projected margin: -24.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.346 | 0.628 | 28.2% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.614 | 0.695 | 8.1% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.278 | 0.383 | 10.5% | $978K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P62 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |