ML Analysis — AURORA MEDICAL CTR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY
CCN 520035 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
60
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
2.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-25.4%, 31.2%]. P70 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1825959.879 | +0.0344 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.288 | -0.0090 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.754 | +0.0088 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 1079489.885 | +0.0068 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
45.0%
Distress Risk
$2.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
9.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P9. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.591 | -0.061 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.048 | -0.040 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.288 | -0.036 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.233 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1825959.879 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 116.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.7M
Current margin: 7.8%
Projected margin: 9.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 38
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.288 | 0.380 | 9.2% | $2.3M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.591 | 0.633 | 4.2% | $275K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.718 | 0.731 | 1.2% | $187K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |