ML Analysis — PETERSON HEALTHCARE AND REHAB
CCN 513025 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency11/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-1.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 11.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-29.8%, 26.8%]. P58 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 980218.954 | +0.0834 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1102994.273 | -0.0665 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.763 | +0.0442 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.003 | +0.0316 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.091 | -0.0298 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$5.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
34.6%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
WV distress rate: 41.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.317 | +0.193 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.668 | +0.059 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.763 | +0.176 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1102994.273 | +0.028 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 22.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.7M
Current margin: 11.1%
Projected margin: 34.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 27
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.332 | 0.601 | 26.9% | $4.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.317 | 0.568 | 25.0% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |