ML Analysis — ASH MORGANTOWN
CCN 510092 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
39
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -22.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.3%, 20.3%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 136163.920 | -0.2014 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 166698.800 | +0.1836 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.086 | +0.0331 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.003 | +0.0316 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 48579.773 | -0.0274 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 36%Turnaround possible (36%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
52.6%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
123.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P27. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WV distress rate: 41.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.357 | +0.156 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 136163.920 | +0.085 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.013 | -0.076 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.224 | -0.065 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.600 | +0.047 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: -22.4%
Projected margin: 123.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 30
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.386 | 0.614 | 22.8% | $3.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.357 | 0.572 | 21.5% | $1.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.224 | 0.547 | 32.4% | $129K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P79 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |