ML Analysis — WHIDBEY GENERAL HOSPITAL
CCN 501339 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
59
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -23.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.5%, 15.1%]. P31 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 4836356.320 | -0.3916 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 3920731.480 | +0.3268 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.103 | -0.0426 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2009133.195 | +0.0377 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
44.5%
Distress Risk
$4.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-19.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P84. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WA distress rate: 67.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Per Bed | 3920731.480 | -0.138 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.009 | -0.080 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.432 | +0.018 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.512 | +0.012 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.390 | +0.010 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.1M
Current margin: -23.4%
Projected margin: -19.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.390 | 0.613 | 22.3% | $2.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.559 | 0.629 | 7.0% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.512 | 0.582 | 7.0% | $460K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P67 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |