ML Analysis — OTHELLO COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 501318 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health1/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-22.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -24.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-51.2%, 5.4%]. P18 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1075832.000 | -0.0703 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.103 | -0.0426 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1335207.938 | +0.0397 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.281 | -0.0228 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 17%Low turnaround probability (17%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
59.6%
Distress Risk
$2.2M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-11.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P62. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WA distress rate: 67.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.269 | +0.238 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.275 | +0.186 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.059 | -0.046 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1075832.000 | +0.030 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.422 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.2M
Current margin: -24.1%
Projected margin: -11.6%
Grade: B
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.269 | 0.526 | 25.7% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.422 | 0.650 | 22.8% | $460K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P4 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |