ML Analysis — SKYLINE HOSPITAL
CCN 501315 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -13.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.3%, 15.3%]. P31 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.103 | -0.0426 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.639 | -0.0403 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.589 | +0.0247 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 14.000 | +0.0210 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 525234.238 | -0.0115 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
55.0%
Distress Risk
$5.7M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
14.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P3. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WA distress rate: 67.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.349 | +0.163 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.589 | +0.098 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.011 | -0.078 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.664 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 14.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1504454.571 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.7M
Current margin: -13.0%
Projected margin: 14.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.325 | 0.616 | 29.1% | $4.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.349 | 0.526 | 17.7% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.589 | 0.650 | 6.1% | $151K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |