ML Analysis — WILLAPA HARBOR HOSPITAL
CCN 501303 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.7%, 18.9%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2652746.600 | +0.1498 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2681883.500 | -0.1262 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.303 | -0.0481 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.103 | -0.0426 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.611 | +0.0272 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
58.1%
Distress Risk
$5.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
20.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P48. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WA distress rate: 67.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.260 | +0.246 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.611 | +0.108 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.700 | +0.064 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2652746.600 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 10.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.105 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.8M
Current margin: -1.1%
Projected margin: 20.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 12
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.194 | 0.494 | 29.9% | $4.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.260 | 0.451 | 19.1% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 33.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |