ML Analysis — THE PAVILION AT WILLIAMSBURG PLACE
CCN 494032 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 19.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.4%, 29.2%]. P64 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 240666.152 | -0.1869 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 194070.682 | +0.1802 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 212823.206 | -0.0219 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.277 | -0.0217 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
nan%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
19.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.884 | -0.333 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.146 | -0.031 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 240666.152 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.324 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 66.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: 19.4%
Projected margin: 19.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 56
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |